The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to believe so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked with a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected gamer."
Although respected money has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
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Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
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He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been " on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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